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HOW WE WILL VOTE IN NOVEMBER

Posted by Tim Bryce on October 17, 2012

BRYCE ON POLITICS

– Keep an eye on “The Silent Majority.”

(Click for AUDIO VERSION)

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The hoopla over the party conventions is over, the debates are coming to an end, and we are now just a couple of weeks away from making an epoch decision regarding the direction of our country. If you do not know who you are voting for by now, you have either had your head in the sand, or you simply do not care and will not be voting anyway (thank God). Just about everyone else has made up their mind and is ready to cast their vote. You can be sure both parties are leaving no stone unturned to find any truly undecided voters out there. If they haven’t made up their minds by now though, they will undoubtedly be voting for the wrong reasons on election day.

I’ve been studying the various polls as to how they predict the people will vote in the Presidential election. Here’s what I found:

Men – Romney will take the majority of male voters.

Women – Obama will take single women voters, while Romney takes the married ones.

The military – will be strongly behind Romney as they consider their current commander-in-chief weak.

Law enforcement – will vote likewise as the military.

Business people – both men and women will be more in-line with Romney.

Teachers – with Obama of course.

Gays – will be more aligned with Obama’s position.

Labor Unions – even though membership in unions is in sharp decline, they will support the president.

African-Americans – as I have written, the president will get the lion’s share of votes from the black community, but it will be substantially less than what he garnered in 2008 as they are disappointed with the president’s performance (and high unemployment among blacks). Voter turnout among this group will be down.

Latinos/Hispanics – legal Latinos who are gainfully employed will vote for Romney while the illegals will vote for the president. This will be a split decision.

Youth – will continue to support the president, but their numbers will be down dramatically.

Seniors – there will be a pronounced senior turnout in favor of Romney.

Churchgoers – even though conservative Christians do not like Romney’s association with Mormonism, they will see him more aligned with Christianity than the president. Also look for Romney to score well with Catholics who do not like the president’s policies pertaining to health care.

Jews – the Jewish vote has historically gone to the Democratic candidate, but the president’s policies regarding Israel have offended many. This will also be a split decision (for the first time ever).

Asians – this will be the big prize that a lot of people are overlooking. Asian-Americans are the new #2 minority, behind Latinos and ahead of blacks. Historically, Asians have voted Democratic, but they may very well find commonality with Romney this go-around. This will be a close decision favoring Romney.

Other variables: President Obama will be unable to recapture the enthusiasm he enjoyed in 2008. Those who are now disappointed in his performance will likely not vote at all as opposed to Romney. The President’s low approval rating has hurt him tremendously and caused disillusionment among his supporters. The thrill is gone and people will no longer be voting for him regardless of the color of his skin.

The other variable is the rise and return of “The Silent Majority” who has been quietly observing the president’s performance and simply does not like what they see. There is perhaps no stronger evidence of “The Silent Majority” than the State of Wisconsin’s recall elections earlier this year, where Gov. Scott Walker was kept in office despite a loud and boisterous campaign coordinated by the unions and the Left. If “The Silent Majority” believes in Romney’s message, they will understandably abandon the president. More than any other group, “The Silent Majority” will decide the November election. What is perhaps most interesting about the “Majority” is there is no way for any of the polling organizations to know exactly who they are or be able to forecast how they will vote. Make no mistake though, “The Silent Majority” is the faction who will decide the outcome of the election and no other group. If they are fed up with how the country is being run, President Obama will be looking for a new job, regardless of the media spin.

“There are a lot of conservative people, a lot of moderate people, Republicans, Democrats, in Hollywood. It is just that the conservative people by the nature of the word itself play closer to the vest. They do not go around hot dogging it. So — but they are there, believe me, they are there.”

– Clint Eastwood at the RNC, Aug. 30, 2012

Keep the Faith!

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is a writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 30 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb001@phmainstreet.com

For Tim’s columns, see:
timbryce.com

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Copyright © 2012 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.
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7 Responses to “HOW WE WILL VOTE IN NOVEMBER”

  1. Tim Bryce said

    A C.G. of Mason, Ohio wrote…

    “Great piece, Tim. I appreciate and look forward to your shows”

    Like

  2. Tim Bryce said

    An F.M. of Texas wrote…

    “Very good analysis. This will translate into Romney taking Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Indiana, North Carolina and Florida this time around – all of which went for Obama in 2008.

    Also in play is Ohio and Pennsylvania. Do not overlook the importance of coal in the election process there.”

    Like

  3. Tim Bryce said

    An M.B. of Clearwater, Florida wrote…

    “This was very interesting. I had no idea that Asians mostly voted Democratic. Based on their strong work ethic and belief in family above all else, I would have predicted just the opposite.

    I don’t know about those other groups, but I can tell you that my family of Jews is not wavering in their support for Obama. Not only are they still voting for Obama, they are all doing volunteer work for his campaign, since they are so horrified at the mere thought of Romney. I just refuse to discuss it, since there is no changing anyone’s minds these days, on either side, and I am in the middle, where most people used to be, before everyone went nuts.” 🙂

    Like

  4. Tim Bryce said

    A C.V.D. of Lansing, Michigan wrote…

    “I am glad I’ve been wrong about Romney – and I will be shocked if it isn’t a landslide Romney/Ryan victory on Nov. 6th.

    I think your observations are spot on. Very insightful and as I heard someone say, I think the Presidential election of 2012 will be the year polls are considered obsolete. They’re going to have to come up with an entirely new way of doing the polls. I’m not even paying attention to what they’re saying now – I think for awhile now Romney has been ahead and Obama has been slowly slipping but steadily slipping behind – even more so after the RNC convention and in particular after the first debate. I think he’s way ahead after the second debate. Obama attempting to imitate Romney and be a “tough” guy and interrupt was an utter failure. He looked uncomfortable and didn’t “win” when he DID interrupt! That’s a humiliation for Barry!

    Remember when he tried to break in with Romney – he stood and began walking forward and Romney confronted him – shut him down and HE WALKED BACKWARD AND SAT DOWN! That was HUGE! I don’t hear too many talking about that – he was like a student being chastised by his grade school teacher! He looked WEAK and SPINELESS. This is what’s been “running” things for almost four years! God help us! That ALONE said it all. Romney – once again – was in charge – not bullying – just in charge – confident – a leader and VERY Presidential.

    Yes – it’s the Mormon over the Moron for me – it’s been a long road – and I’ve been dragged much of the way – but the Mormon has my vote Nov. 6th. “

    Like

  5. Tim Bryce said

    A B.H. of Boulder, Colorado wrote…

    “Question:

    You said: Latinos/Hispanics – legal Latinos who are gainfully employed will vote for Romney while the illegals will vote for the president. This will be a split decision.

    So….perhaps I am a bit naïve, but I was always told that you MUST be a CITIZEN in order to vote. Now, if what you are saying is that the illegals have ILLEGAL identification – that’s a different matter – and it points to the NEED to validate identity (as in Arizona) when appropriate. It is one thing to give an illegal alien a driver’s license or to allow them to hold a job (although technically, NEITHER should be the case) but it is entirely another situation to allow NON-CITIZENS to have ANY voice in the election of our government officials.”

    Like

  6. Tim Bryce said

    A J.S. of Skidway Lake, Michigan wrote…

    “I think your summation is pretty accurate, Tim. The president has lost popularity and too many people are not better off than they were four years ago. We have already voted absentee and we hang up on political calls, whether human or robot. Assuming that many others also hang up, valuing the privacy of the secret ballot, there may be a lot of unknowns in the totals. I tend to believe Clint is right. I hope so. “

    Like

  7. […] October, just prior to the presidential election, I made some predictions regarding the demographics of the voting public. More recently, I attended a presentation given by […]

    Like

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