WHAT IF TRUMP LOSES TO THE ESTABLISHMENT?
Posted by Tim Bryce on April 27, 2016
BRYCE ON POLITICS
– Is it the end of the GOP as we know it?
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Let’s suppose for a moment that Donald Trump lost the Republican nomination to someone else, be it one of the former nominees or an opportunist such as Mitt Romney. By doing so, it will represent the end of the Republican Party as we know it and the birth of a new political party. It would also mean at least four more years of Democratic rule including more social engineering, and continued decay in American Exceptionalism. To people weary of government incompetence and gridlock, this will be unfathomable.
Businessman Donald Trump is being surrounded and attacked by the Washington Triad, representing politicians, lobbyists, and the press, an incestuous relationship more concerned with money and control, than doing what is best for the American people. To the Triad, an outsider like Mr. Trump is perceived as a genuine threat to this lucrative arrangement. Consequently, he is vilified and constantly under attack by the Triad.
Now we add the GOP establishment, members of Trump’s own party who seem to be plotting a coup d’état even if Trump wins the delegate count by the time of the Republican convention in July, now less than four months away. Should Trump make it to Cleveland with less than the required number of delegates (1,237), the nomination will surely be wrestled away from him even if he has the most delegates. If he doesn’t have it by then, Trump will have to negotiate a deal with one of the candidates who possess delegates to push him over the top, such as Sen. Cruz, Sen. Rubio, or Gov. Kasich. This is difficult to imagine as there are strained relations between Trump and the other nominees.
The Cruz/Rubio/Kasich grouping will attempt to rally into a coalition of some kind, but even if they are successful, it is unlikely they will have the necessary delegates to win the nomination. One of them will likely split away and negotiate a deal with Trump. My guess is, it will be Gov. Kasich.
If none of the current candidates win, and the party selects a dark horse like Mitt Romney, who has already lost two campaigns for president, the GOP will have committed suicide and will never rise again. This is why either Trump or the coalition must win.
The GOP has to maneuver around this problem delicately. Frankly, it’s not certain party chairman Reince Priebus is up to the task, and his political legacy depends on whether or not he can keep the party together. It is disheartening the party gives the appearance they would rather be governed by the elders of the GOP as opposed to the will of the voters. This is a common phenomenon in the 21st century where nonprofit institutions are ruled by power hungry people as opposed to bending to the will of their constituents. Its all about money and control, and you see it everywhere.
A change to the corporate culture scares the hell out of people, be it in a corporation or nonprofit. Personally, I made a lot of enemies over the years as I challenged the Good Old Boy networks. Not surprising, they went after me much like they are going after Trump.
Mr. Trump is changing the corporate culture of the Republican Party by taking a tough no-nonsense, business approach to his campaign, something American voters have not seen in quite some time. The Triad paints him as an ogre but his supporters appreciate his candor and bluntness, thereby causing the Republican ranks to swell.
What we are witnessing with Mr. Trump today is essentially no different than what occurred in the early 1800’s with President Andrew Jackson who transformed the Democratic Party by giving the power to populists. Trump is doing the same to the GOP, and party officials do not like it as this is a threat to their authority.
Here is the simple reality the GOP establishment has to come to grips with; if Donald Trump wins the nomination the party will stay together and could very well capture the White House. However, if Trump is not the nominee, the party will implode and likely never come back, ever. It’s that simple.
Also published with News Talk Florida.
Keep the Faith!
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Tim Bryce is a writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 30 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb001@phmainstreet.com
For Tim’s columns, see: timbryce.com
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Copyright © 2016 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.
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THE BRYCE IS RIGHT! 
Donald Frankel said
Excellent analysis Tim and right on the money. Either way this goes it will be extremely interesting. But always remember when thinking of Trump that he is first and foremost a New York City Real Estate guy and the first rule of Real Estate is everything is negotiable. So look for him to close the deal. I know the Cognoscenti keep saying he can’t get to 1237 but why can’t he? The delegates are out there. But even if he doesn’t like you said he’ll make a deal. I think Marco Rubio would be the first one up.
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Tim Bryce said
Honestly, I believe he will have more than enough delegates (I’ve been examining the polls closely). Indiana will be the turning point.
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Invisible Mikey said
It seems to me the GOP establishment believes (based on polling they trust) that if Trump becomes the nominee, he will not only lose his election contest, but negatively impact lower level races, leading to a loss of the Senate (probably) and House (possibly) majorities. So they are working to replace him at the convention if he doesn’t get 1,237+ delegates on the first ballot.
That’s their “what if” scenario mind you, not mine. My hypothetical is that Trump is very likely to win the nomination, but won’t win the general because he can’t carry enough female voters, who are the majority. You can lose women and still win a national election, but not if you lose them by too wide a margin. Things like which side is participating in primaries at a higher rate are not historically predictive of general election results. Demographics determines everything these days.
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Carol said
I sure hope D. Frankel is right! I can not believe the GOP is so afraid of losing their old-school power that they would be willing to destroy the party! Seriously ROMNEY? Seriously??? You might as well hand the election to Hillary on a silver platter with a gold spoon on top! I do hope that Trump will “close the deal” as Frankel suggests because what is MOST important, which the GOP has lost sight of – is to BEAT Hillary! I have long thought the GOP has lost it’s way and is just “Dems Light” and they are showing their true colors with the nonsense that’s been going on. I will say though, there are constituents who are just furious that Trump is the front runner. Some are my good friends. I can’t believe this utter folly of Cruz and Kasich pact. Just when you think the GOP can’t do anything more stupid, they prove me wrong…
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Wayne said
Considering the losers the Republicans have trotted out over the past twelve years simply because it was “their turn” gives one a lot of insight into how value is placed on the establishment Republicans maintaining party control. They are more than willing to give the election away if that threat comes forward. For all the bad pointed out regarding Trump, how could he be any worse than the previous two nominees or anywhere close to as dangerous as Obama or Hillary Clinton? Trump is just one man and we still have a Congress full of these establishment idiots who do nothing other than steal and manipulate for their own personal gain. Trump is a threat to them as well. The nation and especially the American military cannot sustain under the extended version of Barack Obama–Hillary Clinton.
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