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2018: AS FLORIDA GOES, SO GOES THE COUNTRY

Posted by Tim Bryce on November 5, 2018

BRYCE ON POLITICS

– Pre-voting is more revealing than any poll.

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
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It’s showtime for the 2018 midterm elections, where polls and media contend a “Blue Tide” is going to sweep across the country and the Democrats will reclaim the House of Representatives. After all, the press insists, “the party in power historically loses the midterms.” The only problem is the media has never met a president like Donald Trump, nor do they understand the country’s sense of priorities, where the citizenry prefers peace and prosperity over turmoil.

Certainly, we haven’t already forgotten how horribly wrong the media and polls got it in 2016 by picking Hillary Clinton over Mr. Trump in a runaway election? These are the same people who are now predicting the “Blue Tide.” Frankly, they are as wrong as they were in 2016.

In 2016, I accurately predicted the outcome of the election, not because I am a polling genius or possess some sixth-sense intuition, but because I simply studied the early voting data in Florida and saw the Republicans rallying to victory. I also knew Florida was an important swing state and realized, as Florida goes, so goes the country. I believe this remains true in 2018. In other words, I have found the early voting data produced by the Florida Division of Elections to be much more reliable than any poll I have come across.

Before we examine the 2018 Florida data, here are some assumptions I have learned over the years:

1. Republicans tend to cast more Mail-In votes (Absentee) than Democrats.
2. Democrats typically cast more Early-Voting votes than Republicans.
3. Democrats do less voting in Midterm elections than in presidential years.
4. Republicans tend to cast more votes on election day than Democrats.
5. There are more registered Democrat voters in Florida as opposed to Republican voters, yet Republicans are more inclined to vote.
6. Independent voters are a key factor. Whoever sways independents, wins the election.
7. The majority of votes cast are during pre-voting, not on election day. (Typically 70% vote early, and 30% vote on election day).

Here are the pre-voting numbers in Florida prior to election day:

NOTES:

1. Pre-voting was approximately 60% of the votes cast in 2016.
2. The GOP is winning in Tampa Bay area and Florida overall.
3. GOP is running away with the Mail-In votes, Dems ahead in Early Voting (same as 2016).
4. Although “Other” party affiliations are lacking far behind, “No Affiliations” (Independents) show a strong turnout.
5. 42.1% of registered Republicans have already voted.
39.3% of registered Democrats have already voted.
Translation: Republicans are more aggressively voting than the Democrats.

The biggest difference is the total number of votes cast in Florida between Republicans and Democrats. The GOP took a commanding lead in pre-voting and never let go.

It is impossible to determine how independent voters are voting. Even if it is 50/50 Republican/Democrat split, the Republicans will win. However, we have to remember it was the independent voters who voted Republican in 2016. Floridians appear to be happy with our economic success, whereby the state is #1 in the country for Fiscal Responsibility, and #4 in the Tax Foundation’s State Business Tax Climate Index. Translation: they prefer peace and prosperity over turmoil and confrontation.

What does this all ultimately mean? There will be a “Red Tide” in 2018, not blue. Ron DeSantis will win the governorship, and Rick Scott will be our next U.S. Senator.

And as mentioned, “as Florida goes, so goes the country.” If this is so, it appears the Republicans will maintain control over the House, and will pick-up some Senate seats (I’m estimating five). When this election is over, the media, the polls, and the Democrats will once again wonder “What happened?” And as usual, they will have misunderstood the will of the people.

Keep the Faith!

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is a writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim’s columns, see:   timbryce.com

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Copyright © 2018 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim’s channel on YouTube. Click for TIM’S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

 

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10 Responses to “2018: AS FLORIDA GOES, SO GOES THE COUNTRY”

  1. R Mark Phillips said

    Incredible analysis and much at the heart of trends and American aspirations – MAGA is deeper and broader at “the heart level” than can be measured. Thanks Tim for your consistent and timely projections and encouragement. You sir are a great American and I’m proud to call you a friend. Mark

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Much of “the heart” for MAGA as broadly and impressively witnessed during my 2016 Florida engagements, reminiscient of Reagan era aspirations and visions, is beyond measurement but yet predictable when we view trending shifts through your analysis and judgement – the Left is massively in real-time – being sized up and measured at the “truth and glee” level of American pride. Millions of Americans are being given the chance to see their personal and historic placement in defining the “heart level” future of their America – finally thanks to Donald Trump and MAGA – and confronting in truth the destructive idiocy of leftist / Marxist ideology. And this movement has a powerful magnetic Messenger and a right-sounding common sense pull at the truth and glee levels – and that’s what feels good – gleefully with hope, that this movement has a magnificent role for each American to play.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Tim Bryce said

    An M.B. of Clearwater, Florida wrote…

    “Tim. Add another sub group to polls – Registered Democrats that never vote their party’s ticket, but register to cast vote against the party and on final Election Day votes Republican. I met a close friend this week that falls in this category. “

    Like

  4. Tim Bryce said

    A B.H. in Clearwater, FLorida wrote…

    “Love this analysis and your forecast! Will be fun to come back and check after the dust settles! I hope it will be fun, then a toast to you! “

    Like

  5. Tim Bryce said

    A B.J. of Palm Harbor, Florida wrote…

    “I hope and pray that you are right again, Tim! “

    Like

  6. Tim Bryce said

    A C.A. of Amelia Island, Florida wrote…

    “Just because more registered Republicans vote, doesn’t mean they voted for the Republican candidate. I don’t vote because of their party affiliation. I look at all the candidates in each race, just like I do in the Primary. For example there was a particular RINO Congressman I didn’t like so much I voted for anyone running against him. Fortunately he retired and John Rutherford won the seat. That being said, after looking at all the candidates in each race this ballot, this time I voted all Republican.”

    Like

  7. Tim Bryce said

    A U.V. of Largo, Florida wrote…

    “As the saying goes “From your mouth to God’s ears”. Fingers crossed.”

    Like

  8. Tim Bryce said

    A J.C. in Macon, Georgia wrote…

    “I cast my vote early, as I do mostly every year. Luckily the voter laws allow me to still vote within my district even though I live in another. It’s important for me to continue to vote in the district where I plan to live when I retire. 4 1/2 years to go. “

    Like

  9. Ken said

    From your keyboard to God’s ear my friend. Good overview Tim. Thanks

    Liked by 1 person

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