THE BRYCE IS RIGHT!

Software for the finest computer – The Mind

  • Tim’s YouTube Channel

  • Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

    Join 915 other followers

  • Categories

  • Fan Page

  • Since 1971:
    "Software for the finest computer - The Mind"

    Follow me on Twitter: @timbryce

  • Subscribe

Posts Tagged ‘2018 MIDTERMS’

THE 2018 ELECTIONS ARE OVER, NOW WHAT?

Posted by Tim Bryce on November 7, 2018

BRYCE ON POLITICS

– Get ready for some serious changes.

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

Tuesday, November 6, 2018, Election Night in the United States was the starting gun for the 2020 election cycle. On this day, the Democrats captured the House and the Republicans secured the Senate. Translation: the American public opted for gridlock for two years.

The Democrats needed a victory in at least one chamber of Congress to prove they are still a viable political party. The election cost them a ton of money, not just in Congressional races, but in state races as well.

As Democrats take control of the House, Nancy Pelosi faces a challenge from members of her own party for the speaker’s job. It will be an ugly contest she will most likely win. Their job for the next two years is to derail the Trump agenda. Even though we need it badly, do not look for any major legislation to pass, including the areas of immigration, health care, voter reform, electoral reform, or reduction in the federal debt. The House and the Senate are now officially at loggerheads.

The big question is whether the House will now move forward on impeaching the President. Even though such charges would be dismissed in the Senate, the Democrats may find the temptation to harass the President irresistible and attempt to slur him, and the Republicans, as we approach the 2020 election. If they do, this will become their Achilles Heel and people will react to it the way they did in the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearings. In other words, the Democrats will be risking everything if they pursue this route.

The Democrats though are experiencing an identity crisis internally. They couldn’t win in 2016 with Progressive politics, and it appears the country has turned its back on Socialism. Now they have no standard bearer going into the 2020 presidential election, as their candidates are showing their age and politics:

Senator Bernie Sanders – at 79 (in 2020) is the oldest candidate and represents the Socialist agenda.

VP Joe Biden – at 77 (in 2020) is the second oldest, a Progressive, and unable to win convincingly in his own party.

Secretary Hillary Clinton – at 73 (in 2020) is said to want to take another crack at President Trump, but has likely lost the faithful in her own party.

Senator Elizabeth Warren – at 71 (in 2020) wants to run, but her far-left leanings will likely make her an ineffective candidate.

Younger possibilities may include New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (62 in 2020), Sen. Corey Booker (51), and Kamala Harris (56). However, this isn’t about age, it’s about the ideology of the party which the Democrats must sort out quickly. This leads me to believe the Democrats will nominate a dark-horse candidate in 2020, perhaps Michael Avenatti…(doubtful); more likely it will be former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg who will be 78 in 2020. Bloomberg has the financial resources, contacts and media smarts to make a run as a Moderate Democrat, but his age may cause him to balk at a run.

As to our Executive Branch of government, look for some serious changes to occur, including:

* The conclusion of the Mueller probe. If Special Counsel Robert Mueller cannot conclude his investigation before the end of the year, look for the President to bring it to an end as the country has grown weary of this sideshow.

* A clean-up of the Justice Department is likely in order – if the Mueller probe is not concluded quickly, look for heads to roll in the department.

* The President will continue to move forward on negotiating deals in order to reduce the trade deficit.

* The President will face stiff resistance from Democrats in the House for improving the economy as they are bent on raising taxes, not lowering them.

In the Supreme Court, Ruth Bader Ginsburg is showing her age (85). Even though she is determined to hang on, if she passes or is forced to retire for health reasons, President Trump will appoint another Justice. Aside from Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer (80) is another Justice who may want to retire. The next in line is Clarence Thomas (70), but he will likely stay on.

President Trump will continue to reshape the federal bench which will be his legacy for many years to come.

The American populace elected Donald Trump as president in 2016 as they didn’t want “politics as usual.” This resulted in desperate Democrats spending an inordinate amount of money to try and stop him. Now that they are in power, their gridlock and attempt at impeachment will turn the electoral landscape even muddier than we thought possible. If this happens, this will be the impetus for the American people to rise up and re-elect the President in 2020 and re-take the House.

Of course, the House Democrats could surprise me and try to work with the Republican Senate and the President towards some much needed legislation… Nah, it will never happen.

One last note, I would like to thank my readers who congratulated me on correctly predicting the results of the Florida race. The polls got it horribly wrong. It’s not that I am a polling genius, I just know how to read voting data (I guess the news media cannot). More on this to come…

Keep the Faith!

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is a writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim’s columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2018 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim’s channel on YouTube. Click for TIM’S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

 

Advertisements

Posted in Politics | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

2018: AS FLORIDA GOES, SO GOES THE COUNTRY

Posted by Tim Bryce on November 5, 2018

BRYCE ON POLITICS

– Pre-voting is more revealing than any poll.

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

It’s showtime for the 2018 midterm elections, where polls and media contend a “Blue Tide” is going to sweep across the country and the Democrats will reclaim the House of Representatives. After all, the press insists, “the party in power historically loses the midterms.” The only problem is the media has never met a president like Donald Trump, nor do they understand the country’s sense of priorities, where the citizenry prefers peace and prosperity over turmoil.

Certainly, we haven’t already forgotten how horribly wrong the media and polls got it in 2016 by picking Hillary Clinton over Mr. Trump in a runaway election? These are the same people who are now predicting the “Blue Tide.” Frankly, they are as wrong as they were in 2016.

In 2016, I accurately predicted the outcome of the election, not because I am a polling genius or possess some sixth-sense intuition, but because I simply studied the early voting data in Florida and saw the Republicans rallying to victory. I also knew Florida was an important swing state and realized, as Florida goes, so goes the country. I believe this remains true in 2018. In other words, I have found the early voting data produced by the Florida Division of Elections to be much more reliable than any poll I have come across.

Before we examine the 2018 Florida data, here are some assumptions I have learned over the years:

1. Republicans tend to cast more Mail-In votes (Absentee) than Democrats.
2. Democrats typically cast more Early-Voting votes than Republicans.
3. Democrats do less voting in Midterm elections than in presidential years.
4. Republicans tend to cast more votes on election day than Democrats.
5. There are more registered Democrat voters in Florida as opposed to Republican voters, yet Republicans are more inclined to vote.
6. Independent voters are a key factor. Whoever sways independents, wins the election.
7. The majority of votes cast are during pre-voting, not on election day. (Typically 70% vote early, and 30% vote on election day).

Here are the pre-voting numbers in Florida prior to election day:

NOTES:

1. Pre-voting was approximately 60% of the votes cast in 2016.
2. The GOP is winning in Tampa Bay area and Florida overall.
3. GOP is running away with the Mail-In votes, Dems ahead in Early Voting (same as 2016).
4. Although “Other” party affiliations are lacking far behind, “No Affiliations” (Independents) show a strong turnout.
5. 42.1% of registered Republicans have already voted.
39.3% of registered Democrats have already voted.
Translation: Republicans are more aggressively voting than the Democrats.

The biggest difference is the total number of votes cast in Florida between Republicans and Democrats. The GOP took a commanding lead in pre-voting and never let go.

It is impossible to determine how independent voters are voting. Even if it is 50/50 Republican/Democrat split, the Republicans will win. However, we have to remember it was the independent voters who voted Republican in 2016. Floridians appear to be happy with our economic success, whereby the state is #1 in the country for Fiscal Responsibility, and #4 in the Tax Foundation’s State Business Tax Climate Index. Translation: they prefer peace and prosperity over turmoil and confrontation.

What does this all ultimately mean? There will be a “Red Tide” in 2018, not blue. Ron DeSantis will win the governorship, and Rick Scott will be our next U.S. Senator.

And as mentioned, “as Florida goes, so goes the country.” If this is so, it appears the Republicans will maintain control over the House, and will pick-up some Senate seats (I’m estimating five). When this election is over, the media, the polls, and the Democrats will once again wonder “What happened?” And as usual, they will have misunderstood the will of the people.

Keep the Faith!

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is a writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim’s columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2018 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim’s channel on YouTube. Click for TIM’S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

 

Posted in Politics | Tagged: , , , , , , | 10 Comments »

2018 MIDTERMS – WHAT’S AT STAKE?

Posted by Tim Bryce on November 1, 2018

BRYCE ON POLITICS

– The morality of the country.

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

Midterm elections are normally as exciting as watching grass grow. A handful of people usually show up to elect dog catchers and the like. Democrats tend to avoid it like the plague, failing to see the significance of it in comparison to a presidential election. However, in the Age of Trump and the Resistance, the 2018 midterm elections have been electrified and we may very well see some record voting numbers for such an election. This, of course, represents a bonanza for the news media who reaps the financial harvest by whipping the populace into a frenzy.

The media is quick to tell us the party in power normally loses during a midterm election. I would remind them, these are unusual times and we have a President who doesn’t play by their rules and is only interested in results, not history.

Elections are meters of our morality. This is where we collectively determine what direction we would like to see the country go. It defines our priorities and values; what is right and what is wrong. To illustrate:

COURTS

This election will determine what kind of Supreme Court we want: Republicans want justices to interpret the Constitution, and Democrats want them to enact law from the bench. Whereas the former is perceived as conservative, the latter represents a liberal approach. This also applies to the Federal benches as well.

This same phenomenon applies to State Supreme Courts. For example, in Florida three vacancies are awaiting to be filled. Should Democrat Andrew Gillum win the governor’s race, the three justices will likely be liberal; should Republican Ron DeSantis win, the justices will take a conservative approach.

This aspect alone is highly significant to the midterm elections. In terms of morality, should justices simply interpret law, or pave the way for new laws outside of the scope of the Constitution?

CONSTITUTION

The midterms will also have an impact on the mechanisms embedded in the U.S. Constitution. For example, Democrats want to eliminate the Electoral College and rely totally on the popular vote to decide the victor of presidential elections. On the other hand, the Republicans want to keep the Electoral College “as is” in order to maintain parity between urban and rural America. From a moral standpoint, which is the fairest approach? Should the Electoral College be eliminated, the interests of rural America will be neglected, causing candidates to only focus on the needs of urban areas.

Another area under consideration is the eligibility to vote. Whereas Republicans want all legal citizens to vote, Democrats want to give illegal immigrants and criminals the right to vote. There is also discussion regarding the lowering of the voting age to 16. The question is, what kind of person should be allowed to vote?

THE RULE OF LAW

Some people believe the law should be applied equally to everyone. Others believe exceptions should be granted, that some people are above the law. Republicans believe a person is “innocent until proven guilty” and there should not be a double-standard that allows otherwise (“guilty until proven innocent”). To enforce this, there should be “due process” to entitle citizens to fair and consistent treatment under the law.

The Rule of Law includes Amendment I of the Bill of Rights whereby Congress shall make no law prohibiting “the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.” Peaceably is the keyword here. This certainly doesn’t support the concept of anarchy as advocated by some people in this country today.

So, the moral question becomes, do we believe in adhering to the Rule of Law, or do we prefer mob rule?

SOCIOECONOMICS

The United States was founded as a free enterprise system which is an economic system where government places few restrictions on the types of business activities or ownership by citizens. This is based on the concept of Capitalism which is a celebration of the individual’s right to try and succeed, requiring a sense of risk. In contrast, the Democrats are embracing Socialism which concentrates on the rights of the group overall, controlled by government, thereby suppressing individual initiative and risk. Unlike Capitalism which allows for failure, there is no such sense of loss in Socialism, nor sense of victory. Essentially, everyone receives a trophy, win or lose. The two socioeconomic programs are as different as night and day, and are simply incompatible.

Under Capitalism, the individual is entitled to enjoy the fruits of his/her labor, such as financial rewards. This is an important benefit derived from risk. Under Socialism, there is no such concept, and instead of the individual benefiting, the wealth is evenly distributed to the work force, regardless if they earned it or not. In other words, a weak worker benefits at the same rate as a strong worker.

Democrat Socialists believe in free entitlements for everyone, such as college education, food and housing, transportation, health care, and jobs. This may sound enticing, but they have no clue as to how to pay for all of this other than higher taxes, thereby causing a redistribution of the wealth, which is anti-Capitalist.

The moral question thereby becomes, which system should America embrace? Republicans defend Capitalism, Democrats prefer Socialism.

GLOBALIZATION VS. NATIONALISM

This election is also about adopting a position of Globalization or Nationalism. Globalization, as supported by Democrats, involves the cultural integration of trade, capital, and immigration among the countries of the world. This tends to force countries to lose their identity and become subservient to others. Consequently, we are seeing a push back in the form of Nationalism as in President Trump’s policy of “America First,” and “Brexit,” representing the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union.

Nationalism respects the sovereignty of a country, meaning their ability to manage their own affairs independently. Globalization loosens these restrictions to promote equality of nations and cultures, a form of Socialism. Nationalism respects the rights of the citizen, Globalization respects the rights of everyone, regardless where they are from. Consequently, this has led to the immigration problems plaguing the United States and Europe. In a nutshell, it means caring for anyone crossing our borders. Whereas under Nationalism, immigrants must lawfully apply to be accepted, respect the rule of law, and adapt to society, Globalization is just the reverse.

So, the question becomes do we want to be a sovereign country, where the rule of law is respected, or do we want to have open borders and an amalgamation of cultural laws? Add on to it, the provision for housing, education and healthcare for anyone on our shores.

As mentioned, politics is morality in action, as it leads to the the laws, rules, and regulations of a body of people, thereby representing their interpretation of right and wrong. To learn about politics and government is to learn morality. The founding fathers felt strongly about this. So much so, in 1828 the text book, “Elementary Catechism on the Constitution of the United States” by Arthur J. Stansbury, was introduced to teach students government and morality. Having the students learn their rights and freedom was considered important in the early days of this country.

Republicans believe government exists to serve the people. Democrats believe the citizens are subservient. This, of course, represents conflicting interpretations of morality.

On November 6th, we will again determine what is right and what is wrong.

Keep the Faith!

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is a writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim’s columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2018 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim’s channel on YouTube. Click for TIM’S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

 

Posted in Politics | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

 
%d bloggers like this: