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Posts Tagged ‘AS FLORIDA GOES’

AS FLORIDA GOES, SO GOES THE COUNTRY

Posted by Tim Bryce on October 29, 2020

BRYCE ON POLITICS

– Bryce’s prediction for the 2020 presidential election.

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

It’s time for me to announce my prediction for the 2020 presidential election. I was right on the money in 2016 and in 2018 for the mid-term elections, and I did it without the aid of the polls which, as I discovered, are totally useless. Instead, I rely on the voting data received from the Florida Board of Elections which routinely updates their numbers, thereby providing me with the means to study trends. Let me show you how I did it.

Before I begin, please remember in 2016 the Republicans won in Florida under the category of Vote-by-Mail (aka, “Absentee”), the Democrats won the Early-Voting, and the Republicans won the Election Day votes. Things didn’t work out quite this way in 2020, which I will explain, but suffice it to say more people will have voted in all three categories in Florida this year than in 2016 (which also set a record at the time).

In 2020, the Democrats started well by running away with the Vote-by-Mail ballots. In fact, this was their preferred voting venue. Two reasons for this, first; the Democrats had an aggressive campaign to get people to vote by mail, and second; Republicans were scared their ballot would be lost or misappropriated and, as such, opted to vote in person instead. Nonetheless, the Democrats built an early lead based on the Vote-by-Mail ballots which became difficult for the Republicans to overcome.

Early-Voting started one week later and lasted two weeks (it will close this Sunday). The Republicans seized on this and never relinquished the lead in this category. In the Tampa Bay metro area alone, all of the counties were dominated by the Republicans, including Hillsborough, a Democrat stronghold. Then, slowly but surely, the Republicans took control of the total votes. As we approach election day next week, the Republicans will find themselves in the lead, and will likely turn out in record numbers on election day (as they have done historically). In contrast, the Democrats voted early through Vote-by-Mail. Prior to election day, well over 50% of the registered Democrats had voted. Normally, only 66% of registered Democrats vote overall, but even if they get to the 70% or 75% plateau on election day, it will not be enough to stop the Republican tsunami at the voting booth. As an aside, 75% of registered Republicans typically vote in a presidential election, but I suspect this number will go higher this year.

One other note worth mentioning, independent voters also flexed their muscle in Florida’s elections, setting another voting record. In 2016, Independents helped carry Mr. Trump across the finish line. I cannot help but believe they will do likewise in 2020 as many are disturbed by the violence and mayhem in Democrat controlled cities. Even if it is a 50/50 split, it will be good for Republicans.

Click HERE for my spreadsheet showing Florida/Tampa Bay voting data.

In the final analysis, unless there is some massive voter fraud, President Donald Trump is going to win re-election. From the data I have seen, he will win Florida handily, and as Florida goes, so goes the country (as evidenced by the 2016 election).

The key to all of this is the enthusiasm of the voters, pitting the Silent Majority against the “Haters.” I say the “Haters” as I do not truly believe they embrace their candidate, former VP Joe Biden, as much as they hate President Trump. In contrast, the Silent Majority is a movement of people who openly support the president and demonstrated in his favor at numerous Flag rallies, Automobile rallies, and Boat rallies, the largest of which was over 2,000 in nearby Clearwater, Florida, thereby setting a world record. This was all done at the grassroots level by volunteers. Here in Florida, there were some occasional flag rallies for Mr. Biden, but I learned many people were paid to wave Biden signs and flags, just the antithesis of the Trump supporters. This is when I knew President Trump was going to win as he possessed the true support of the people.

I also call the Biden supporters “Haters” as I have personally seen members of their group yell and scream obscenities at Trump supporters unprovoked. It is crude and offensive to a lot of people, particularly children. Unfortunately, I witnessed this too many times. The Democrats like to portray President Trump as the “Divider-in-Chief,” but in reality, it is their own party imbued in hate. They are simply classless.

I also find it disturbing to see so many Trump signs and flags defaced or stolen. When was the last time you saw a Biden sign stolen? No, I cannot think of an instance either. Unfortunately, the “Haters” believe this is morally acceptable to do.

We also see signs of the Silent Majority at Trump Rallies featuring the president, where thousands of people attend and cling to his words. Contrast this to the few Biden Rallies which are sparsely attended.

As in 2016, the polls were dead wrong. Once again they will be embarrassed by the elections. How can anyone take them seriously? I, for one, do not, which is why I rely on actual voter data instead. The numbers I use are real. The numbers the polls use are fake and produce fallacious results. Further, the Main Stream Media will also suffer another black eye in terms of credibility as they have obviously become nothing more than shills for the DNC.

Bottom-line: Just as in 2016, the Democrats will be crying come election night.

As an aside, just because I can confidently call the race here doesn’t mean the race is over. Instead, I encourage everyone to get out the vote, regardless of your political persuasion.

Finally, let me be the first to say, “Congratulations President Trump.”

Keep the Faith!

P.S. – Also, I have a NEW book, “Before You Vote: Know How Your Government Works”, What American youth should know about government, available in Printed, PDF and eBook form. This is the perfect gift for youth!

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is an author, freelance writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim’s columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2020 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim’s channel on YouTube. Click for TIM’S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

2018: AS FLORIDA GOES, SO GOES THE COUNTRY

Posted by Tim Bryce on November 5, 2018

BRYCE ON POLITICS

– Pre-voting is more revealing than any poll.

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

It’s showtime for the 2018 midterm elections, where polls and media contend a “Blue Tide” is going to sweep across the country and the Democrats will reclaim the House of Representatives. After all, the press insists, “the party in power historically loses the midterms.” The only problem is the media has never met a president like Donald Trump, nor do they understand the country’s sense of priorities, where the citizenry prefers peace and prosperity over turmoil.

Certainly, we haven’t already forgotten how horribly wrong the media and polls got it in 2016 by picking Hillary Clinton over Mr. Trump in a runaway election? These are the same people who are now predicting the “Blue Tide.” Frankly, they are as wrong as they were in 2016.

In 2016, I accurately predicted the outcome of the election, not because I am a polling genius or possess some sixth-sense intuition, but because I simply studied the early voting data in Florida and saw the Republicans rallying to victory. I also knew Florida was an important swing state and realized, as Florida goes, so goes the country. I believe this remains true in 2018. In other words, I have found the early voting data produced by the Florida Division of Elections to be much more reliable than any poll I have come across.

Before we examine the 2018 Florida data, here are some assumptions I have learned over the years:

1. Republicans tend to cast more Mail-In votes (Absentee) than Democrats.
2. Democrats typically cast more Early-Voting votes than Republicans.
3. Democrats do less voting in Midterm elections than in presidential years.
4. Republicans tend to cast more votes on election day than Democrats.
5. There are more registered Democrat voters in Florida as opposed to Republican voters, yet Republicans are more inclined to vote.
6. Independent voters are a key factor. Whoever sways independents, wins the election.
7. The majority of votes cast are during pre-voting, not on election day. (Typically 70% vote early, and 30% vote on election day).

Here are the pre-voting numbers in Florida prior to election day:

NOTES:

1. Pre-voting was approximately 60% of the votes cast in 2016.
2. The GOP is winning in Tampa Bay area and Florida overall.
3. GOP is running away with the Mail-In votes, Dems ahead in Early Voting (same as 2016).
4. Although “Other” party affiliations are lacking far behind, “No Affiliations” (Independents) show a strong turnout.
5. 42.1% of registered Republicans have already voted.
39.3% of registered Democrats have already voted.
Translation: Republicans are more aggressively voting than the Democrats.

The biggest difference is the total number of votes cast in Florida between Republicans and Democrats. The GOP took a commanding lead in pre-voting and never let go.

It is impossible to determine how independent voters are voting. Even if it is 50/50 Republican/Democrat split, the Republicans will win. However, we have to remember it was the independent voters who voted Republican in 2016. Floridians appear to be happy with our economic success, whereby the state is #1 in the country for Fiscal Responsibility, and #4 in the Tax Foundation’s State Business Tax Climate Index. Translation: they prefer peace and prosperity over turmoil and confrontation.

What does this all ultimately mean? There will be a “Red Tide” in 2018, not blue. Ron DeSantis will win the governorship, and Rick Scott will be our next U.S. Senator.

And as mentioned, “as Florida goes, so goes the country.” If this is so, it appears the Republicans will maintain control over the House, and will pick-up some Senate seats (I’m estimating five). When this election is over, the media, the polls, and the Democrats will once again wonder “What happened?” And as usual, they will have misunderstood the will of the people.

Keep the Faith!

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is a writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim’s columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2018 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim’s channel on YouTube. Click for TIM’S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

 

Posted in Politics | Tagged: , , , , , , | 11 Comments »

 
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